The Convener of the African Renaissance Movement, ARM, Dr Aliyu Audu, has warned that the dwindling electoral competition ahead of the 2027 general elections poses a significant risk to Nigeria’s democratic stability.
Audu cautioned that democracy is more likely to die gradually through institutional and administrative failures rather than a noticeable crisis.
In a statement released on Sunday, Dr Audu argued that threats to constitutional democracy are often gradual, through regulatory decisions, procedural exclusions, and institutional inequalities that reduce political alternatives.
He noted that constitutional democracy lies in preserving citizens’ ability to choose among genuine political options, warning, “When viable political choices are weakened, whether through procedural exclusion, regulatory pressure, or institutional imbalance, the injury is not merely to a political party. It is to the electorate.
While reflecting on Nigeria’s democracy in the Fourth Republic, Audu noted that while the country has demonstrated resilience, it has also shown vulnerability, recalling that the 2015 general elections were a defining moment in democratic consolidation, where an opposition coalition secured victory and effected the first peaceful transfer of power from an incumbent ruling party.
“That moment strengthened democratic confidence not only domestically but across Africa. It demonstrated that incumbency is not insurmountable when institutions function effectively, and citizens trust the system.”
Dr Audu also referenced constitutional safeguards designed to protect political pluralism, citing Section 40 of the 1999 Constitution, which guarantees freedom of association, including the right to form or belong to political parties, while Section 221 recognises the central role of parties in sponsoring candidates for elections.
On the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, Dr Audu emphasised that in any democracy, public confidence in electoral management bodies is as important as legal compliance, warning that once perception shifts toward institutional bias, trust begins to erode.
“The Independent National Electoral Commission occupies a pivotal position in this framework. Its authority must be exercised with scrupulous neutrality, guided by constitutional fidelity rather than political convenience. In any democracy, public confidence in electoral management bodies is as important as legal compliance.
“A crucial distinction must be maintained between political strategy and political suppression. Democracy thrives on persuasion. It weakens under preemption.
“The long-term cost of shrinking political space extends beyond partisan calculations. When citizens perceive that electoral outcomes are predetermined or that competition is uneven, apathy replaces engagement, young voters disengage, and civic trust declines.”
Dr Audu further warned political actors to preserve Nigeria’s democratic gains, noting that electoral choice remains a constitutional right rather than a privilege.
“When electoral choice shrinks, democracy does not immediately collapse, it simply becomes thinner and thin democracies are fragile democracies,” he warned.
2027: Dwindling electoral competition threatens Nigeria’s democracy – Dr Audu
