Whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays on or no, Canada appears to be heading for a spring poll now that the NDP has pledged to turn down the government earlier in the year. Following next week’s episode that rocked Trudeau’s government, social watchers are speculating over the potential scenarios that may unfold in the coming year. The springtime national campaign is the one that is moving the fastest. The best bet is to fall in the state by late March, and finally a general election time may fall in April or May, according to Yaroslav Baran, co-founder of the Pendulum Group and former chief of staff to Conservative home president Jay Hill. According to him,” the greatest likelihood would be that the government would fall at some point between late February and late March,” making April or May the “most likely scenario” for the election day. The prime minister would then be required to go to the governor if the government fails on a non-confidence vote. to give her updates on the election day and time. Elections Canada states that the window for a campaign is at least 36 days and a maximum of 50 days. Since the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, which has amounted to a stunning blow to Trudeau’s standing as leader, and has renewed the internal pressure on him to step down as leader, the political calendar appears to have moved up by about five months. According to Trudeau, he is currently considering his future. When asked about his holiday plans, the prime minister’s office did not respond on Monday. 2: 07
In a confidence vote when the House returns, Atlantic Liberal MPs gather to discuss Trudeau’s future amid demands for resignation. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has pledged to help defeat the governing Liberals. The Bloc has also recently called for an election early in the new year, while the Conservatives, who are firmly in the lead in the polls, have been demanding an election all fall. Singh might still change his mind, and many scenarios are still a possibility, such as an opposition party negotiating a significant budget item and holding a fall election as scheduled, but that seems less and less tenableable. It makes no sense to strike a deal and act as the government’s partner a few months later as Public Enemy no. 1″, Baran said. ” Obviously, the Liberals no longer enjoy the support of any of the opposition parties. The likelihood of a spring election is therefore high, according to Brittney Kerr, founding partner of Framepoint Public Affairs and former Liberal campaign co-chair in 2019. ” It won’t be lost on anyone at the centre ( in the Prime Minister’s Office ) how complex the political equation is to win, given overwhelming public sentiment in favour of the Conservatives, coupled with the prime minister’s long tenure “.The government can still prorogue, which would hit the stop button on Parliament and put it into a deep winter sleep for as long as several months. In the event that Trudeau decides to step down, there would be room for a leadership race. 2: 56
Liberal MPs in Ontario reach” clear consensus” to allow Trudeau to step down. Baran said this would only help him in the long run because the opposition parties all appear to be ready to vote and parliament has to wait until after long to approve finances and keep paying public servants and face the music on those crucial votes. Trending Now
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” If the prime minister prorogues, it allows him to not have to face Parliament on January 27th. He can therefore save some time for planning, regrouping, etc., but it would be extremely difficult for that period to extend beyond the end of March. Although the Progressive Conservatives elected Kim Campbell in a contest lasting about three months prior when Trudeau was elected leader in 2013, the election campaign lasted roughly six months. Michael Wernick, a former Privy Council clerk, claimed that removing options from the table in response to potential sudden trade moves that might hurt Canada would put pressure on parliament ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The issue is not whether the prime minister has the ability to veer off. It’s whether he should. It would seem incredibly foolish to remove our shields before January 20th, in my opinion. I think we may need Parliament to be around and functional” .7: 41
In support of Justin Trudeau, opposition parties are positioning the public to choose a stronger leader than Trudeau to deal with an aggressive Trump White House, and the Liberals have been weaving a narrative that an experienced government is necessary to deal with an unpredictable Trump. According to Wernick, Canada should aim to win its election sooner rather than later. The best thing for the country would be to finish the election as soon as possible and be as clear about who the Canadians have chosen to lead, he said. ” The more we prolong this performance theatre and house of cards— who’s got legitimacy, who’s got confidence, who’s the leader, who’s going to be the successor — dragging this out is weakening the country” .Wernick suggested the political parties could, given the high stakes of the Trump presidency, reach a sort of partisan-ceasefire agreement to pass as much legislation as they could in a short few weeks, such as Bill C-65 which would amend the Canada Elections Act, and then have their election-triggering confidence vote. ” In Washington, negotiations between the Republicans and the Democrats are possible. Surely our parties can”.
