This year, Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from the finance ministry revived calling for Justin Trudeau to step over or hold an election. With 2025 set to be an election year and no indications of a Democratic healing ahead, Trudeau is in a crucial position where he must decide whether to stay or leave. A former top Progressive employee, Carlene Variyan of Summa Strategies, who was a former top Democratic employee, said a lot depends on what the prime minister does “in the next 24 days” and that he may step up to strengthen his case as soon as possible and strengthen Canada-U. S. relations staff by showing he’s reorienting toward focusing on the Trump marriage. She added that Trudeau may also change the ministers who previously announced they would not seek reelection.” He needs to sign to his cabinet, conference, and to the country that he continues to be firmly in charge of his government,” she said. After Freeland immediately resigned from the government on Monday, the behind-the-scenes talk in Ottawa social circles started to fade as soon as Wednesday. 2: 21
In light of the political unrest, Trudeau anticipated a government change. Sources: The Progressives may be waiting for the temperature to subside before making the decision to move their top chair and install new ministers to deal with the incoming Trump administration, which threatens to impose 25 % tariffs on Canada. Variyan argued that Trudeau should not wait. She said,” He has a real chance of holding the government together until spring if he can bring that renewed sense of stability and being in charge of his government.” Otherwise, members of the caucus and cabinet could begin “peeling off much earlier than that,” and parliament could fall apart” not long after they come back at the end of January.” The House of Commons has downed tools for the holidays and won’t be back until January 27— after Donald Trump’s inauguration. If Trudeau decides to step down, that gives him until mid-to-late January to consider taking his proverbial “walk in the snow” as his father famously did. According to former Conservative House Leader Peter Van Loan, Trudeau’s decision-making is entirely up to him. ” I firmly believe that one of the reasons he’s hanging on is because he is so far behind in the polls and doesn’t want to be perceived as having been chased out,” he said. Van Loan sees Trudeau’s resignation in January as the most likely outcome, though not one that is guaranteed. All it does is fuelling this environment where he appears to be being chased out. 3: 03
Trudeau likens Freeland’s departure to a family spat, calls Poilievre the’ Grinch'” He’ll stay around as leader until his successor is chosen and the party goes about selecting his successor in, I don’t know, late May, June”, Van Loan suggested, then “nothing happens until there’s a new leader in place “.The party’s national board of directors would name an interim leader until the party grassroots elects a new one, and set a date for the race. In this case, the Liberals would have to really hustle. In contrast to previous leadership contests, the party would likely seek to reserve a spot and organize a race. Under significant rule changes introduced under Trudeau that radically expanded the Liberal party base to anyone who wanted to formally enlist to become a member, making it more than just an exclusive club of paying, card-carrying members, party brass would also have to deal with running the race. If the cost of living and other affordability issues improve, Trudeau might make an effort to carry on as usual and try to hold the door shut until the anticipated fall election date, when the Liberals might have a better chance of winning. Since his party did not implement a formal process for removing its leader, as the Conservative party did when it passed the Reform Act, which ultimately resulted in the removal of former Tory caucus leader ErinO’Toole, Trudeau can remain in power. If a sizable portion of his own caucus called on him to resign, he would have a much harder time retaining control of the position. In this scenario, the ruling party is hoping that voters will become less unimpressed with the Trudeau brand. 2: 23
What led to Freeland’s sudden resignation? The New Democrats would have to continue supporting the government for the duration of the current minority Parliament to succeed. In an interview on CBC’s Power and Politics, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh demanded that Trudeau step down as president, and his House Leader Peter Julian threatened to do so in a confidence vote in February or March if Trudeau stays in office. That could bring an election around March, if the party follows through. House Leader Karina Gould made a point on Tuesday during the inquiry period that the NDP had already endorsed the Liberals in every fall sitting confidence vote. Trending Now
3 British men have been charged with beating the restaurant owner in Ontario’s death.
Officer of the Toronto Police ID who had a medical emergency died while on duty.
Late October is the country’s most likely election day, but the Trudeau administration’s House of Commons confidence vote could cause one to fall and trigger one sooner. The government has a lot of control over when those votes take place, and those spending matters, such as the budget and the fall economic statement, are affected by those votes. However, the government has some flexibility in scheduling when putting forward its own confidence votes on special calendar days known as opposition days or supply days. According to the House of Commons standing orders, up to seven of those must be completed by the end of March. They don’t need to be motions of confidence. If the Conservatives, Bloc, and NDP turn down any of these votes, a winter, spring, or summer election could take place, but all of them must assemble in one big one. Once that happens, the campaign period must be at least 37 days but no more than 51 days, according to an Elections Canada backgrounder. Election day must always fall on a Monday. Trudeau could choose to press the pause button on Parliament by proroguing in any of the circumstances. He may make the request to the governor general while the House is in session or after recess. A prorogation would prevent the government from winning early elections and from winning in confidence. And if Trudeau leaves, it would be in a short leadership race. Thomas Hall, a former House of Commons procedural clerk, said there’s a time limit that comes with that move. After a few months, Parliament would have to go back to providing the government with funds to keep the lights on. 1: 15
Trudeau government turmoil’ embarrassing’ for Canada: PoilievreThat’s because once in the past, the late former prime minister Brian Mulroney had prorogued Parliament before it was supposed to return in February in 1989, leaving it shuttered from December through April, and leaving routine spending approvals to the governor general through signing special warrants. Peter Milliken, a former liberal MP, pushed for a private members ‘ bill that would require parliament to vote again on whether to approve the government’s funding request. Due to Milliken’s successful attempt to alter the rules in 1996, Trudeau is unable to go awry throughout the spring session. The House of Commons has been stymied for the majority of the fall due to a privilege debate and a filibuster over the release of documents in an ethics /spending scandal. ” If they prorogue now, any new session they start, there would be no privilege filibuster debate. That would be over with”, said Hall. The opposition might also try to bring that discussion to a head. Hall believes that if Speaker Greg Fergus had handled this debate differently, he might have recently brought it to a close discussion. He predicted that unless the rules are changed, they would be back in place pretty quickly, which would mean that the spring session could be just as sluggish as the fall. ” In order to not have more opposition days where ( the government ) will be defeated, and where they will still face the privilege motion, I think they have no alternative but to prorogue” .6: 21
‘ Not an easy day’: Trudeau speaks for the 1st time since Freeland resignation
