The House of Representatives on Thursday approved the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, MTEF/FSP, with a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
The House’s approval sets the stage for a divergence with the Senate ahead of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s N54.4 trillion budget presentation scheduled for Friday, December 19, 2025.
The benchmark endorsed by the House is the same figure earlier proposed by the Executive, despite concerns over volatility in the global oil market.
This position contrasts sharply with that of the Senate, which had earlier reviewed and reduced the oil price benchmark for 2026 to $60 per barrel, creating conflicting fiscal assumptions between the two chambers as preparations for the 2026 budget intensify.
Notably, the House Committee on Finance and National Planning had initially recommended a lower benchmark of $60 per barrel for 2026, arguing that a conservative estimate would help cushion government revenues against possible global oil price fluctuations during peak periods.
However, defending the House’s decision, Speaker Tajudeen Abbas cautioned that lowering the benchmark without comprehensive modelling of its effects on revenue, borrowing and overall government expenditure could result in funding gaps. He warned that such shortfalls might ultimately be covered through increased domestic revenue mobilisation or additional borrowing.
Meanwhile, DAILY POST reports that the Senate not only cut the 2026 oil benchmark to $60 per barrel but also retained slightly higher projections of $65 and $70 per barrel for 2027 and 2028, respectively.
Senators argued that the adjustments were necessary to protect the economy from external price shocks and promote more conservative and realistic revenue projections.
Confusion as Reps, Senate approve different oil benchmarks
