The International Air Transport Association, IATA, has warned that the global aircraft supply chain may not return to normal until 2031-2034, citing years of delivery delays and an unprecedented backlog of orders that continue to strain airlines worldwide.
In its latest global outlook, IATA noted that aircraft deliveries began to recover in late 2025, with production expected to accelerate in 2026.
However, supply is projected to remain insufficient to meet airline demand for much of the decade.
“The availability of aircraft remains one of the most significant constraints on industry growth. While deliveries picked up in late 2025 and production is set to increase next year, demand is expected to outpace the supply of aircraft and engines.
“The structural mismatch between airline requirements and production capacity, exacerbated by irreversible delivery shortfalls over the past five years, is unlikely to normalize before 2031-2034,” the association stated.
IATA highlighted that the current order backlog has surpassed 17,000 aircraft, representing nearly 12 years of production, far above the historical norm of roughly 30 to 40 percent of the active global fleet.
The report also revealed that delivery shortfalls have reached at least 5,300 aircraft, forcing carriers to extend the operational life of older planes.
The average fleet age now stands at 15.1 years, including 12.8 years for passenger aircraft and nearly 20 years for cargo fleets.
Despite the ageing fleet, more than 5,000 aircraft remain in storage, emphasising ongoing inefficiencies in the supply chain.
IATA warns global aircraft supply shortage may persist until 2034
