Prof Gordon Gray at the 2011 Independence Day reception at U.S. Embassy Tunis. PHOTO/ U.S. Embassy Tunis.
Eyewitness Africa Editor Patrick Mayoyo posed questions to Professor Gordon Gray, Kuwait Professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Affairs at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, about the recent US–Israel strikes on Iran and their potential implications for regional stability and US strategic interests.
Below are Prof Gordon Gray’s responses.
Q1. Professor Gray, given the recent US-Israel strikes on Iran, do you believe these operations risk triggering a full-scale regional war rather than serving limited strategic objectives?
It already is a full-scale regional war. Israel and Iran have attacked one another, and Iran has launched attacks against targets in Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and all six of the Gulf Cooperation Council nations: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Q2. There are reports of significant disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. How dire is the impact on global energy security, and why has the international community not acted more decisively to safeguard maritime routes?
About 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Strait of Hormuz as does 19 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, so the impact has been – and will continue to be – significant. The international community is deferring to the United States to safeguard the Strait of Hormuz as it has in the past.
Prof Gordon Gray is the Kuwait Professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Affairs at the George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs. PHOTO/GWU.
Q3. Allegations have surfaced suggesting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have been injured during Iranian missile attacks. Can you assess how such a scenario could affect Israel’s immediate military and political decision-making?
He has since reappeared in public, but these reports may have been the result of an Iranian disinformation campaign. Regardless, they validate the observation by the ancient Greek dramatist Aeschylus that “the first casualty of war is the truth.”
Q4. How credible are claims that Iran’s regional proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are already mobilizing in response, and what implications does this have for Gulf state security?
As of now the Houthis have refrained from acting on Iran’s behalf. Hizbollah has attacked Israel, but there are no indications that it intends to attack any of the Arab Gulf states.
Q5. Could the recent attacks derail the already fragile efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, and is there evidence that Tehran may harden its negotiating stance in retaliation?
There is a precedent for resurrection in the Middle East, but it is difficult to imagine serious negotiations about an Iranian nuclear deal will begin any time soon.
Prof Gordon Gray at the Middle East Policy Forum on February 13, 2024. PHOTO/UGC.
Q6. Professor Gray, with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi scheduled to visit Washington D.C., how significant is Japan’s role in shaping the US-led strategy against Iran, given her statements about what Japan legally “can and cannot do”?
The war is deeply unpopular in Japan so the Prime Minister is trying to thread the needle by deferring to domestic public opinion without antagonizing President Trump. Initial reports of her March 19 meetings with Trump suggest she has succeeded.
Q7. To what extent could Japan’s legal and constitutional constraints limit US expectations for allied support in the Gulf, and how might this affect the coordination of multilateral efforts against Iran?
Please see my answer to the previous question.
Professor Gordon Gray brings more than three decades of experience in public service, having worked for the US government for 35 years. His distinguished career includes serving as US Ambassador to Tunisia from 2009 to 2012, Senior Advisor to the Ambassador in Iraq between 2008 and 2009, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs from 2005 to 2008. He has also held key diplomatic postings in Egypt, where he served as Deputy Chief of Mission from 2002 to 2005, as well as in Canada, Jordan, Pakistan and Morocco, where he began his career as a Peace Corps volunteer. He is a two-time recipient of the Presidential Meritorious Service Award.