Politics in Adamawa State has entered a familiar but dangerous phase: the stage where quiet alignments, ethnic calculations and elite manoeuvres begin to matter more than public declarations. Beneath the calm surface of party activities, a consequential struggle for control of the future is already underway, and at the centre of it stands Comrade Mustapha Salihu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Vice Chairman for the North-East.
What is unfolding is not merely the rumour of defection or rapprochement across party lines; it is a high-stakes gamble over who controls the levers of power in Adamawa ahead of 2027. Salihu’s alleged outreach towards Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) speaks less to ideological convergence and more to the cold logic of political survival in a state where ethnicity, succession and structure often outweigh party loyalty.
Within APC circles, there is growing anxiety over perceived Fulani dominance of the party’s hierarchy in Adamawa. Salihu’s calculations, according to multiple party insiders, appear rooted in the belief that Governor Fintiri’s solid backing among minority ethnic groups could serve as a counterweight in future internal power struggles. This thinking, whether sound or misguided, reflects a deeper truth about Adamawa politics: ethnicity remains the unspoken currency of influence.
Governor Fintiri’s own political trajectory has sharpened these divisions. His controversial restructuring of traditional emirates—most notably the fragmentation of the Adamawa and Mubi emirates—has elevated his standing among minority communities while alienating significant segments of the Fulani elite. The resulting legal battles over the status of the Adamawa Emirate have further politicised identity, turning cultural institutions into contested political symbols.
Against this backdrop, Fintiri’s recent public remarks expressing openness to “political opportunities” cannot be dismissed as casual rhetoric. In the hyper-sensitive environment of Adamawa politics, such statements are read as signals. For APC power brokers already uneasy about internal competition, they sounded like an invitation—or a warning.
Salihu’s sense of urgency appears further complicated by the rising profile of Tijjani Galadima, the Yola-born Chief Executive Officer of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF). Galadima’s growing prominence, bolstered by links to networks associated with the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, has unsettled established interests. Early governorship permutations have a way of triggering pre-emptive strikes, and Salihu’s manoeuvres fit that familiar pattern.
The symbolism of Governor Fintiri hosting Galadima at a civic reception and publicly praising him did not go unnoticed. While officially framed as goodwill, the gesture was widely interpreted as political rapprochement—one that potentially aligns PDP power with influential APC-linked networks. For Salihu’s camp, this development may have confirmed fears of an emerging alternative power bloc capable of redefining the 2027 contest.
It is within this context that Salihu’s conspicuous warmth towards Fintiri must be understood. His high-profile attendance at events organised in the governor’s honour, reportedly involving significant financial support and logistical showmanship, reads less like courtesy and more like calculated signalling. In Adamawa politics, optics are policy, and silence is often strategy.
To be clear, neither Salihu nor Fintiri has publicly acknowledged any defection talks or political pact. But politics is rarely driven by confirmations; it is shaped by patterns, gestures and timing. And the pattern here suggests an elite chess game already several moves deep.
With more than a year to formal campaigns, the real battles for Adamawa’s political future may be fought—and possibly settled—long before the electorate is called upon to vote. What is at stake is not just party dominance but the architecture of power itself: who controls structures, who balances ethnic interests, and who emerges as kingmaker—or king—by 2027.
Salihu’s gamble may yet pay off, or it may backfire spectacularly. But one thing is certain: the quiet struggle for Adamawa has begun, and its outcome will be decided not in rallies or manifestos, but in the shadowy intersections of ethnicity, ambition and elite alignment.
The author is a Kaduna based public affairs commentator
