Kenya’s former ambassador to Botswana and a front-runner in the Garissa gubernatorial race Mohamed Shidiye (in dark glasses) at a football tournament in Dabaab. PHOTO/UGC.. By ABDULHAKIM SHERMAN. [email protected]. The 2027 Garissa gubernatorial race is shaping up to be an intensely contested affair with multiple prominent figures already making moves to solidify their support bases.. The political landscape is characterized by a combination of clan dynamics, negotiated democracy, and the critical influence of elders, which are likely to play a significant role in determining who will be the next governor of Garissa County.. The front-runner, Mohamed Shidiye, is a seasoned politician and Kenya’s former ambassador to Botswana, has intensified his campaigns by engaging in various community events across the county.. Shidiye’s recent activities were in Dabaab where he hosted a football tournament, held a roadshow and engaged in numerous townhall and stakeholders meetings.. The former envoy is poised to capitalise on his political experience and clan affiliations, but the outcome remains fluid as his potential opponents, including former Governor Ali Korane, Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji, and East African Community Principal Secretary Abdi Dubat, are also preparing robust campaigns.. Shidiye, a seasoned politician and former ambassador to Botswana, has been actively engaging in grassroots campaigns across Garissa County. Shidiye, who has strong ties to the Auliyahan sub-tribe of the Ogaden clan, is leveraging his deep-rooted political history and diplomatic experience to build a broad coalition of supporters.. His ongoing community-driven efforts, such as youth soccer tournaments and town hall meetings, serve to reinforce his connection with the people and highlight his focus on local development.. Shidiye’s campaign is heavily reliant on his clan, the Auliyahan, which has been historically loyal to him due to his long-standing service to the community.. His diplomatic experience also adds credibility to his candidacy, positioning him as a leader with both local and international perspectives, which could resonate with a wide cross-section of Garissa’s electorate.. Former Garissa Governor Ali Korane. PHOTO/UGC.. His efforts in areas like Dadaab and other constituencies aim to position him as a unifying figure who understands the region’s socio-economic challenges.. Clan politics remains the most powerful force shaping the Garissa gubernatorial race. In Garissa County, the political dynamics are deeply divided along clan lines, with each major clan often rallying behind candidates who belong to or are seen as sympathetic to their interests.. The county is home to several influential clans, including the Ogaden, the Darod, and the Isaaq, each of which has different allegiances and interests. The Auliyahan sub-tribe, which forms a significant portion of Shidiye’s support base, is expected to heavily back him in the upcoming race.. Historically, the Auliyahan have aligned themselves with candidates from their own clan, and Shidiye’s long-standing political ties with this group are expected to provide him with a significant advantage. His support from the Auliyahan, combined with his past service as a legislator and diplomat, could translate into a formidable voter base.. However, the Garissa gubernatorial race is not limited to the Auliyahan. Former Governor Ali Korane, who hails from the larger Ogaden clan, will likely receive backing from different sub-clans within the Ogaden.. Korane’s tenure as governor, although controversial at times, left a lasting mark on the county, with a number of development projects and infrastructural improvements.. His political experience and established networks within the Ogaden and beyond make him a serious contender. Korane’s challenge lies in overcoming the divisions within the Ogaden clan and uniting various factions under his leadership.. Senator Abdulkadir Mohamed Haji, another prominent figure, is expected to appeal to the broader Somali community in Garissa, particularly the Isaaq and other smaller clans.. Haji’s role as a senator and his long-term advocacy for security and infrastructural development in the region give him a broad appeal, although he will face stiff competition from Shidiye and Korane, who are both entrenched within specific clans.. Mohamed Shidiye on campaign trail in Dabaab. PHOTO/UGC.. East African Community Principal Secretary Abdi Dubat, who is a potential newer entrant into the race, could appeal to voters outside the dominant clan structure.. His background in diplomacy and regional development might resonate with a segment of the electorate interested in stronger ties with the broader East African community. However, Dubat’s ability to consolidate clan support remains uncertain.. One of the defining features of the Garissa gubernatorial race, as with many other elections in northern Kenya, is the role of negotiated democracy.. This system allows community elders and clan leaders to mediate and negotiate political outcomes, ensuring that leadership positions are distributed in a manner that reflects the interests of different clans and communities within the county.. Negotiated democracy aims to prevent clan conflicts by ensuring that political decisions are made collectively and in consultation with key community leaders.. In Garissa, elders are the custodians of the negotiated democracy process. They convene regularly to discuss and negotiate political matters, including the selection of candidates for high-profile positions such as the governor.. Their influence is immense because they not only provide moral and spiritual guidance but also wield considerable sway over voter behaviour. Elders’ endorsements are crucial to a candidate’s success, as they can sway entire communities in favor of a particular candidate.. As the 2027 election approaches, it is expected that the elders will convene to discuss the suitability of each candidate. Their decision will likely be influenced by several factors, including clan balance, past performance, and the broader interests of the community.. East African Community Principal Secretary Abdi Dubat, is a potential entrant in the Garissa gubernatorial race. PHOTO/UGC.. In the context of Garissa, the elders will likely be focused on maintaining harmony among the various clans and ensuring that the election does not devolve into conflict.. Elders will also play a significant role in mediating any disputes that arise between candidates or clans. Their ability to broker peace deals and ensure that political campaigns are conducted in a spirit of cooperation is crucial for maintaining stability in the region.. In this way, the elders act as both political kingmakers and peacemakers, ensuring that the election process is smooth and that the county continues to progress without significant divisions.. The 2027 Garissa gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a highly competitive contest, with Shidiye emerging as the frontrunner due to his strong clan ties, diplomatic experience, and grassroots campaign.. However, his path to victory is not guaranteed, as other formidable candidates such as Korane, Haji, and Dubat are also vying for support.. The role of clan politics will be decisive in the outcome of the race, as each candidate seeks to consolidate support within their own clan while appealing to others.. However, the true wild card in this election is the role of negotiated democracy and the influence of the county’s elders. Their mediation and endorsement of a candidate will carry significant weight, potentially determining the winner of the race.. Ultimately, the 2027 Garissa gubernatorial election will be a test of how well candidates can navigate the complex web of clan politics and negotiated democracy, as well as their ability to secure the crucial backing of elders and clan leaders.
