Climate-related disasters are becoming more frequent and more intense across sub-Saharan Africa. Floods, droughts, heatwaves and storms are no longer isolated environmental events. They increasingly shape livelihoods, inequality, public trust and the relationship between citizens and the state.
Governments rely on taxes to finance schools, healthcare, infrastructure and climate adaptation policies. However, taxation depends on more than just enforcement: it depends on whether citizens believe the state is capable, fair and responsive in times of crisis.
Our research has focused on taxation, inequality, public finance and climate-related shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. In a recent study we examined an underexplored consequence of climate-related disasters in Africa: their effect on tax morale, in other words people’s willingness to pay taxes voluntarily.
Tax morale matters because many African countries struggle to raise enough domestic revenue. And citizens are more willing to pay taxes when they trust governments to be fair, effective and responsive.
We analysed data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries between 2011 and 2021. We combined Afrobarometer survey data with climate disaster records from the Emergency Events Database, an international disaster database. Our study looked at five types of disasters: droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, storms and wildfires.
We matched disaster events to respondents based on their location and interview date. We then used statistical models to examine how disaster exposure was associated with tax morale. The analysis also looked at the roles of inequality and trust in public institutions.
The findings reveal a complex picture. They show that disasters don’t all affect tax morale in the same way. Droughts and extreme temperatures are associated with lower tax morale. Floods, by contrast, go with slightly higher tax morale. Repeated exposure to multiple climate-related disasters is associated with an overall decline in tax morale.
We also found that disasters are associated with rising economic inequality. When inequality increases, trust in public institutions declines and tax morale weakens. The results of our analysis support this argument by incorporating the climate-disaster dimension. Climate-related disasters exacerbate inequality. In turn this erodes trust in public institutions and ultimately reduces tax morale.
Although climate disasters tend to reduce tax morale, our analysis shows that the institutional environment may mitigate the impact. On this issue we focused on Kenya, Benin and South Africa. All three are highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters. All three have introduced disaster management and climate-related legislation over the past decades.
This additional analysis allowed us to examine whether formal disaster-response frameworks can reduce the impact of disasters on citizens’ fiscal attitudes. The results indicate that these institutional frameworks substantially weakened, and in some cases completely removed, the negative effects of natural disasters on tax morale.
These findings suggest that citizens respond to the capacity of governments to manage and respond effectively to disasters.
Why would climate disasters influence attitudes towards taxation?
Taxation is not only an economic issue. It is also a social contract. Citizens are more willing to comply with taxes when they believe governments use public resources fairly and provide protection during crises.
Evidence from African countries suggests that trust plays a central role in shaping tax morale. Higher levels of trust in public institutions are associated with a greater willingness to comply with tax obligations. This is particularly true of local governments and public agencies.
The quality of public service provision appears to matter too. Effective service delivery tends to strengthen tax morale.
Previous studies demonstrate that climate disasters can erode this relationship in several ways.
First, disasters destroy livelihoods and reduce incomes, making it harder for households to meet basic needs. Where families struggle to afford the basics, survival comes first and paying taxes is less important.
Second, disasters can erode trust in government when responses are perceived as slow, unequal or politicised. Willingness to comply with taxes declines – even among higher-income taxpayers – if citizens believe disaster relief benefits only certain groups, or if corruption affects aid distribution.
Third, climate shocks place extra pressure on public finances. Governments may collect less revenue while facing higher spending demands for reconstruction and emergency assistance.
What affects the willingness to pay
Our study showed that the strongest negative effects on tax morale came from droughts and extreme temperatures. This is not surprising. Droughts directly affect agricultural production, food security and rural livelihoods. Heatwaves also reduce labour productivity and increase health costs, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Floods produced different results. In some cases, they were associated with slightly higher tax morale. One possible explanation is that visible and effective government responses during floods, such as emergency relief and infrastructure, may strengthen perceptions of state responsiveness.
Our research also suggests that the effects of climate disasters are not uniform across countries and communities. The negative effect on tax morale is stronger in poorer countries and in rural areas. Here livelihoods depend more heavily on climate-sensitive activities such as agriculture. And rural households are often more exposed to floods and droughts. They also have weaker access to public services, financial protection and state support.
In these contexts, repeated climate shocks can reinforce perceptions that governments are unable or unwilling to protect vulnerable populations.
The role of climate policy
Climate adaptation policies need to address inequality and strengthen public trust. Otherwise, repeated climate shocks may undermine willingness to contribute to public finances.
Targeted social protection, equitable disaster relief and transparent public spending are essential. So are investments in climate resilience for vulnerable communities.
Our findings suggest that climate disasters don’t only threaten economies and livelihoods. They may also undermine the fiscal relationship between governments and citizens where inequality is high and institutional trust is low.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.